Economic Indicators

IMF maintains 2023 global GDP growth forecast, adjusts predictions for 2024

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) upheld its global GDP growth prediction at 3% for 2023 and slightly decreased the forecast for 2024 to 2.9%, down by 0.1 percentage points, according to a report published on Tuesday. The IMF also adjusted its world trade growth volume forecasts, lowering this year’s prediction from 2% to 0.9% and next year’s from 3.7% to 3.5%.

In terms of individual economies, the IMF revised its projections for various nations. The US economy is predicted to grow by 2.1% this year and 1.5% next year, marking an increase from earlier estimates. China and Russia are expected to see their economies expand by 5% and 4.2%, and 2.2% and 1.1%, respectively, in the same period.

However, Germany’s economy is anticipated to contract by half a percentage point this year before recovering with a growth of 0.9% in the following year, both predictions showing a decline from previous expectations.

The eurozone is set to see a growth of 0.7% next year and 1.2% in the subsequent year, both figures being lower than earlier estimates. Meanwhile, emerging markets are projected to grow at a rate of 4%, marking a slight dip from the previous forecast of 4.1% for the year 2024.

In regards to Romania’s economic outlook, the IMF predicts a growth rate of 2.2% in 2023, increasing to 3.8% in 2024 with respective inflation rates of 10.7% and 5.8%. The budget deficits are expected to be at around 6% and 5%.

Jan Kees Martijn, the IMF mission head, stressed the need for more measures beyond the Government’s fiscal package. He warned about the impact of turnover taxes on low-margin firms and recommended eliminating tax exemptions, revising property taxation law, and transitioning to a green economy. Martijn insists on putting public finances on a healthy path, with the fiscal package as a crucial first step, and advises continuing system cleaning by removing exemptions.


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