Cryptocurrency Opinion & Analysis

Bitcoin, Ethereum Bulls Brace to Defend Last Line of Support: What’s Next?

 

  • Bitcoin’s recent rebound has come across a strong resistance zone
  • Meanwhile, Ethereum has continued to outperform Bitcoin despite waning investor interest
  • For a bullish outlook, both Bitcoin and Ethereum must hold their critical support levels

In September, Bitcoin rebounded from a key support level at $25,700, which had held firm throughout 2023. However, its upward momentum this week has been constrained. Additionally, the cryptocurrency has encountered substantial resistance at a technically significant level in the short term.

Overall, Bitcoin remains under the pressure of a persistent tightening monetary policy amid macroeconomic uncertainty. The current environment has seen a diminishing appetite for risk, driven by the belief that the transition to a more accommodating monetary policy will be delayed, especially in light of the Federal Reserve’s “higher for longer” stance. Rising costs and stubborn inflation further contribute to this apprehension.

Regarding cryptocurrencies, the expected upward movement is contingent on the introduction of a spot ETF. In the medium term, the upcoming halving event, which will reduce the supply of Bitcoin, is viewed as another catalyst for a positive trend. Moreover, the Fed’s high likelihood of transitioning to a neutral interest rate period in 2024, even without a decline in interest rates, plays a role in stabilizing the current trading range.

Throughout the year, a support level has formed near $25,700. This suggested an optimistic outlook for Bitcoin as the intensity of crypto investors’ reactions to recent economic data remained subdued, hinting that the current economic climate is already priced in, and a new bull cycle could begin. But, that was until new geopolitical risks emerged.

This week, headwinds for cryptos have surged with the onset of conflict in the Middle East. Simultaneously, recent developments have negatively impacted the cryptocurrency market. In comparison to other risky markets, the geopolitical situation in cryptocurrency has yet to be fully factored in. In the days ahead, if investors view Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset, as has been the case in the past, it may potentially rejuvenate the ongoing pessimistic outlook for the crypto sector.

Bitcoin: Nosedive Awaits If $25,700 Is Breached

From a technical standpoint, the cryptocurrency’s response to the 200-day moving average has been noteworthy. Despite reaching the $28,000 level early in October, BTC encountered formidable resistance at this 200-day moving average. The inability to garner enough buyer volume to surpass this average contributed to a downturn, further exacerbated by heightened tensions in the Middle East.

As the week unfolded, the price began testing the 50-day moving average, retreating to around $26,600. Additionally, the moving average crossover, known as the “dead cross,” signaled a bearish trend in September. While the initial response to this situation was buying, Bitcoin’s inability to breach the 200-day moving average has reinforced the bearish outlook. Bitcoin Daily Chart

Based on the current circumstances, the $26,600 level is emerging as a pivotal support for Bitcoin. If BTC’s price once more drops below the 50-day moving average (MA), we could witness a buying reaction around $25,700, regarded as another crucial support line.

Consequently, the upcoming trajectory is anticipated to revolve around re-establishing a position above the 50-day MA. However, if the anticipated upward breakout does not materialize, there’s a possibility of another descent toward the $22,000 region, potentially at a swifter pace.

Bitcoin Weekly Chart

When taking a broader perspective on Bitcoin, observing its weekly performance reveals that the $28,600 range has maintained significance as a pivotal point since April. Referring to the lower range observed at the conclusion of 2022, stemming from

Bitcoin’s peak price in November 2021, the technically significant resistance point for a potential ascent based on Fibonacci levels rests at $28,600. Over the last six months, Bitcoin’s price has remained within this region, exhibiting a horizontal trajectory.

In summary, while the $25,600 level acts as the last line of defense against a decline below this range, $28,600 is deemed a pivotal resistance to remain above the 200-day moving average (MA) in the bullish zone.

The potential for recovery is more likely to initiate only when Bitcoin establishes a base above $28,600. Otherwise, the short-term bullish movement that fails to surpass this zone may be viewed as limited rebounds within the overall downtrend.

Can Ethereum Continue to Outperform Bitcoin?

Ethereum continues to outperform Bitcoin in October. The recent decline in interest in the Ethereum network can be attributed to the increase in returns on lower-risk traditional assets.

While the Ethereum network has been operating as the largest liquid staking platform following its recent updates, the recent downward trend in annual returns and concerns about staking have led to a decline in investor interest. While a similar lack of demand has been seen on the institutional side, the ETH price remains weak in line with the overall market trend.
Ethereum Daily Chart

At this point, the downward trend has intensified more this time at the $1,550 support, which has been tested since August. The loss of $1,550 support, which corresponds to Fib 0.618 according to the last bottom and peak level, with the weekly closing, may accelerate the downward trend in cryptocurrency and trigger a movement towards the $1,390 region (Fib 0.786).

In a possible recovery, the range of $1,580 – $1,600 will be followed as the first resistance line. In order for the downtrend to reverse, regaining the $1,700 region and weekly closures above this region stand as the first condition.

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