Market Overview
Could the Market Have Mispriced Inflation Odds?
09.02.2025
Could the Market Have Mispriced Inflation Odds?
Our main macro thesis for the first half of 2025 is that another disinflationary wave will hit the US. We…
Where Does Money Come From?
08.02.2025
Where Does Money Come From?
All money is lent into existence. The Federal Reserve or the government does not print money. Those two facts are…
Markets Weekly Outlook – Inflation Fears Rise With Tariffs Ahead of US CPI Release
08.02.2025
Markets Weekly Outlook – Inflation Fears Rise With Tariffs Ahead of US CPI Release
Markets had an interesting end to the week with a mixed bag of jobs data leaving a lot to be…
Week Ahead: Will US CPI Be a Positive Distraction Amid Trump’s Tariff Games?
07.02.2025
Week Ahead: Will US CPI Be a Positive Distraction Amid Trump’s Tariff Games?
US consumer and producer prices are the main focal point. UK economic output data is to be watched too. But…
US Dollar: Traders Pause Selling as Nonfarm Payrolls Data Looms
07.02.2025
US Dollar: Traders Pause Selling as Nonfarm Payrolls Data Looms
Dollar rebounds ahead of NFP data. BoE cuts rates by 25bps, ultra-hawk votes for double cut. Canada’s jobs data to…
Forecasting Errors Could Put Fed on Wrong Side Again
07.02.2025
Forecasting Errors Could Put Fed on Wrong Side Again
The Federal Reserve’s record of forecasting has frequently led it to respond too late to changes in economic and financial…
The Fed Believes These Banks Are Vulnerable to Failure
07.02.2025
The Fed Believes These Banks Are Vulnerable to Failure
The NY Fed has recently published a study on bank failures in the U.S., examining the reasons why banks fail. For this…
NFP Preview: Stage Set for Another Strong Jobs Report Followed by US Dollar Rally
07.02.2025
NFP Preview: Stage Set for Another Strong Jobs Report Followed by US Dollar Rally
NFP report expectations: +169K jobs, +0.3% m/m earnings, unemployment at 4.1% Leading indicators point to a potentially above-expected reading in…
S&P 500: Bond Market’s Reaction Will Hold Clues on Index’s Post-NFP Move
07.02.2025
S&P 500: Bond Market’s Reaction Will Hold Clues on Index’s Post-NFP Move
Yesterday’s market was a bit volatile, though not surprising. We mainly saw sideways trading for most of the day until…
German Manufacturing: Growth Is on the Way
06.02.2025
German Manufacturing: Growth Is on the Way
German data is increasingly exceeding expectations, fuelling hopes for an improvement in the Eurozone economy. The industrial orders index increased…