Market Overview

Could the Market Have Mispriced Inflation Odds?

Could the Market Have Mispriced Inflation Odds?

Our main macro thesis for the first half of 2025 is that another disinflationary wave will hit the US. We…
Where Does Money Come From?

Where Does Money Come From?

All money is lent into existence. The Federal Reserve or the government does not print money. Those two facts are…
Week Ahead: Will US CPI Be a Positive Distraction Amid Trump’s Tariff Games?

Week Ahead: Will US CPI Be a Positive Distraction Amid Trump’s Tariff Games?

US consumer and producer prices are the main focal point. UK economic output data is to be watched too. But…
US Dollar: Traders Pause Selling as Nonfarm Payrolls Data Looms

US Dollar: Traders Pause Selling as Nonfarm Payrolls Data Looms

Dollar rebounds ahead of NFP data. BoE cuts rates by 25bps, ultra-hawk votes for double cut. Canada’s jobs data to…
Forecasting Errors Could Put Fed on Wrong Side Again

Forecasting Errors Could Put Fed on Wrong Side Again

The Federal Reserve’s record of forecasting has frequently led it to respond too late to changes in economic and financial…
The Fed Believes These Banks Are Vulnerable to Failure

The Fed Believes These Banks Are Vulnerable to Failure

The NY Fed has recently published a study on bank failures in the U.S., examining the reasons why banks fail. For this…
NFP Preview: Stage Set for Another Strong Jobs Report Followed by US Dollar Rally

NFP Preview: Stage Set for Another Strong Jobs Report Followed by US Dollar Rally

NFP report expectations: +169K jobs, +0.3% m/m earnings, unemployment at 4.1% Leading indicators point to a potentially above-expected reading in…
S&P 500: Bond Market’s Reaction Will Hold Clues on Index’s Post-NFP Move

S&P 500: Bond Market’s Reaction Will Hold Clues on Index’s Post-NFP Move

Yesterday’s market was a bit volatile, though not surprising. We mainly saw sideways trading for most of the day until…
German Manufacturing: Growth Is on the Way

German Manufacturing: Growth Is on the Way

German data is increasingly exceeding expectations, fuelling hopes for an improvement in the Eurozone economy. The industrial orders index increased…
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