Bonds
Bonds Analysis & Opinion
10-Year Treasury Yield: Gap to Fair Value May Continue to Shrink Further
03.10.2024
10-Year Treasury Yield: Gap to Fair Value May Continue to Shrink Further
The spread between the US 10-year Treasury yield and a ‘fair value’ estimate calculated by CapitalSpectator.com continued to narrow in…
Selloff in Junk Bonds Could Signal Trouble Ahead for Stocks
03.10.2024
Selloff in Junk Bonds Could Signal Trouble Ahead for Stocks
I wrote about long bonds TLT starting in June and how they could be the next big trade. They were…
Bonds Continue to Post Gains as September Rate Cuts Get Priced In
03.10.2024
Bonds Continue to Post Gains as September Rate Cuts Get Priced In
Year-to-date returns for US fixed income are skewing positive this year ahead of the Federal Reserve policy announcement this afternoon.…
Eurozone Data, German Economic Woes Widen Bund-UST 10Y Spread
03.10.2024
Eurozone Data, German Economic Woes Widen Bund-UST 10Y Spread
Eurozone data continues to challenge the European Central Bank, with German economic contraction and sticky CPI complicating matters. Meanwhile, the…
What the Divergence Between T-Bond Yields and Commodity/Gold Ratio Tells Us
03.10.2024
What the Divergence Between T-Bond Yields and Commodity/Gold Ratio Tells Us
In a blog post in February-2017, we discussed an age-old relationship between interest rates and prices. The following chart-based comparison…
Rates Spark: The ECB Pushes Back
16.01.2024
Rates Spark: The ECB Pushes Back
EUR curves bear flattened at the start of the week with the European Central Bank leaning against aggressive market pricing.…
Bond Market, Gold, Yield Curve and the Changes to Come
15.01.2024
Bond Market, Gold, Yield Curve and the Changes to Come
While it is far from the only important indicator for the markets, the 10-2 Year Treasury Yield Spread is…
10-Year Treasury Yields Inch Closer to Fair Value, but There’s Still Room to Run
12.01.2024
10-Year Treasury Yields Inch Closer to Fair Value, but There’s Still Room to Run
The US 10-year Treasury yield continues to fall, which is narrowing the gap between the higher market rate and…
Bond Market Could Be Hinting at Inflationary Steepening of the 10-2 Year Curve
11.01.2024
Bond Market Could Be Hinting at Inflationary Steepening of the 10-2 Year Curve
After a gentle disinflationary easing, the bond market could be hinting at an inflationary steepening of the 10-2 Year…
Rates Spark: The Side Effect of Weighing the Scenarios
10.01.2024
Rates Spark: The Side Effect of Weighing the Scenarios
10Y Bunds got pushed back to 2.2% but still struggled to move past that hurdle despite a heavy supply…