Bonds
Bonds Analysis & Opinion
3 Key Questions Facing Bond Market Ahead of News on Inflation, Tariffs and Deficit
23.01.2025
3 Key Questions Facing Bond Market Ahead of News on Inflation, Tariffs and Deficit
Is this the calm before the storm? Or has the danger passed? The bond market is focused on news and…
Credit Spreads: The Real Sentiment Indicator?
23.01.2025
Credit Spreads: The Real Sentiment Indicator?
We’ve followed the small business optimism and consumer sentiment indicators as a good barometer for the “mood” around the economy.…
10-Year Yield: Rising Market Premium Reflects Growing Reflation Fears
23.01.2025
10-Year Yield: Rising Market Premium Reflects Growing Reflation Fears
The market premium for the US 10-year Treasury yield continued to rebound in November vs. a “fair value” estimate calculated…
Risk On or Risk Off? What Bond Markets Are Signaling After Powell’s Speech
23.01.2025
Risk On or Risk Off? What Bond Markets Are Signaling After Powell’s Speech
Yesterday, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell spoke. Some highlights U.S. BUDGET IS ON AN UNSUSTAINABLE PATH; REVENUE…
10-Year Yields Indicate Investors Remain Anxious About Inflation Outlook
16.01.2025
10-Year Yields Indicate Investors Remain Anxious About Inflation Outlook
The market premium for the US 10-year Treasury yield eased in December after rising for two straight months. The analysis…
Are German Government Bond Yields Changing 44-Year Trend?
16.01.2025
Are German Government Bond Yields Changing 44-Year Trend?
Interest rates continue to dominate our recent research. And rightfully so. Big swings in interest rates have ramifications for the…
30-Year Treasury Bond Yields Targeting 6.5% or Higher?
14.01.2025
30-Year Treasury Bond Yields Targeting 6.5% or Higher?
In just 4 years, the trend (and investment theme) of low interest rates has been turned on its head. During…
10-Year Treasury Yield Nears Critical Level – Don’t Be Surprised by a Treasury Rally
14.01.2025
10-Year Treasury Yield Nears Critical Level – Don’t Be Surprised by a Treasury Rally
The chart below is the 10-year Treasury “yield” contract, traded at the CBOE. Readers can see a break in the…
US 5-Year Treasury Yields Offer a Rare Premium With Inflation Risks Back in Focus
10.01.2025
US 5-Year Treasury Yields Offer a Rare Premium With Inflation Risks Back in Focus
Inflation risk is topical again, as I’ve been discussing this week. As a result, the bond market is demanding a…
10-Year Yields Could Stay Elevated as Sticky Inflation Meets Fed Easing in 2025
09.01.2025
10-Year Yields Could Stay Elevated as Sticky Inflation Meets Fed Easing in 2025
The backup in bond yields since mid-September did not surprise us. But it has surprised lots of other financial pundits,…